January 16, 1996

A major earthquake striking the Wasatch Front is not a question of if, but when. A new study suggests that one may be more likely than previously thought.

The study, soon to be published in the February edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research, estimates a 30 percent probability of a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake in the Wasatch Front region in 100 years. Using an alternative calculation considering new fault trenching results by the Utah Geological Survey, the study estimates a probability of such an earthquake on the Wasatch fault in Salt Lake City alone may be as high as 57 percent in 100 years.

J.P. McCalpin of GEO-HAZ Consulting, Inc., Estes Park, Colorado, and S.P. Nishenko, research associate at the University of Colorado Natural Hazards Research Center in Boulder conducted the research.

"This is dramatic new information," says Dr. Les Youd, Chairman of the Utah Seismic Safety Commission. "We don't wish to appear to be alarmists, but this study suggests that we are at greater risk than previously thought. We feel so strongly about this information we thought it best to have one of the authors present the results of the study directly to the commission."

S.P Nishenko addressed the Utah Seismic Safety Commission during its regular meeting on January 16, 1996.